S&P 500, Nasdaq post fresh records, Nvidia's run: Market trends

The Nasdaq (^IXIC) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at record highs, with megacap tech stocks continuing to cause big gains for the indexes. It was the 37th record close for the S&P 500 this year.

Yahoo Finance Reporter Jared Blikre joins Asking For A Trend to break down the latest market trends for July 10. Blikre breaks down how Nvidia's (NVDA) impressive run has it topping the performance of the top stocks of the dot-com bubble and why there is a "buyback blackout."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video transcript

The S and P 500 NASDAQ keeping its winning streak alive.

Notching another record close investors seeing big tech stocks pile on the gains and yaw finances, Jared Blick joins us now for more trading day, take away is Jared.

Thank you.

You saw it yourself.

Seven wins for the NASDAQ S and P 500.

By the way, that's both the composite and the NASDAQ 100 they've been up 10 of the last 11 days.

So suffice to say we've been on a pretty good tear here.

I have some other figures.

Uh This is uh mega cap tech.

Now, when you look at tech overall, you can look at XL K that's up 23.5% leading the sectors this year.

Mega Cap tech, which is just, you know, that small subset of it is up 50%.

What's amazing, Josh is, these are only the best figures since last year.

So last year, we actually, at this exact same point point in time, we were actually up more in tech.

So let's talk money.

Can we get down to brass tax here?

Are we seeing the money flows behind the price moves.

J um I was I, I was seeing this the latest f uh excuse me, the latest flows from B of A.

They have seen that in the last week we had, I think it was the fifth best streak, the fifth best weekly streak in their data going back to 2008.

So just an incredible run there.

And so to answer your question, yes, the money flows are actually backing up the price.

Interesting.

All right, Jared Blacky point number two, NVIDIA is winning the.com bubble.

So what does that mean if we take NVIDIA and in purple, we have this price going back five years and on the bottom X axis, this is a number of days that have lapsed.

If you compare that to a combination of Cisco Intel Microsoft and oracle from the late nineties from 1995 to 2000, guess what NVIDIA is now up 3000%.

This group of four was only up 1800%.

So by this metric, NVIDIA is already trouncing the.com bubble.

Let me ask you, usually I turn you GG for the technicals, obviously, I should charge.

But what about the fundamentals?

You know what's funny we talked about this a month or two ago and NVIDIA has really strong fundamentals, their Ford multiple has been remarkably consistent over the last couple of years.

Um So if you take a look at it that way, it really hasn't gone too far in terms of its valuation when you start getting, seeing pe multiples get up into the hundreds and thousands.

Um, that's a little bit of a concern but I think, uh, NVIDIA, it's somewhere, it's been between 3050 which is high but not eye watering high.

Yeah, it teach you how many bowls we have come on the show and I, I wouldn't say they're ping the table for NVIDIA, but I guess they point they make Jared is if you believe we're still early innings, the A I revolution.

And you think you think the cloud giants are gonna keep spending, spending, spending 200 billion for the data center next year.

That's a pretty remarkable number.

That would blow it out of the number.

All right, point number three.

So we are in this uh incredibly bullish part of the year.

But we are also saying, seeing a buyback blackout window.

So what happens is when we come into earnings season, you have 500 stocks in the S and P 500 as uh 4 to 6 weeks before they start their earnings announcement or before they're gonna announce earnings, they are supposed to cease their buybacks.

And we know that buybacks are a big part of the buying picture when it comes to us stocks.

So this chart shows you, this begins May 23rd and it shows how many companies of the 500 the S and P 500 are in their blackout window, what you're gonna notice like we're right in here, we are up to almost the five 100 levels.

So we've probably seen some of that demand pulled forward, or at least by the very, at the least we're not gonna see that tail wind and buybacks for the near future.

And some of the trends you point out here, um, would you argue that seasonality playing any kind of role in part?

You know, I think that's an interesting point because remember, let me, let me just show this chart that we've been showing.

I've been showing last week.

This is the S and P 500.

What tends to happen each month of the year, the 1st 10 days in the last 10 days.

And what we, what I've been showing here is, here's July, this is the best 10 days out of the year right here.

But what you're gonna notice is guess what we get these spikes every four months.

We saw one before Q two, we saw one right around Q one, probably gonna see another one right around October.

Uh But this is something that's very predictable.

And so now you can see how all of these things kind of fold into each other where there's a lot of demand at the beginning of July in part because of a few different things.

But one of them might be is that you have that demand pulled forward by the blackout window all these companies are free to buy their shares until they're not.

And that not time is right now, you know, I've been a couple of days since I mentioned seasonality.

That that's why you gotta make up for it.

I must have said that at least five times.

Thank you, my friend.