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ASML Holding N.V. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.6% to €840 in the past week. Revenues €5.3b disappointed slightly, at2.0% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of €3.11 coming in 13% above what was anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ASML Holding after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding

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After the latest results, the 38 analysts covering ASML Holding are now predicting revenues of €27.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.0% to €18.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €27.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €18.87 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

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With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.2% to €988. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ASML Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €1,260 and the most bearish at €635 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ASML Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ASML Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ASML Holding's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ASML Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for ASML Holding you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.