Yahoo Finance Avantium (AMS:AVTX) investors are sitting on a loss of 44% if they invested three years ago
For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Avantium N.V. (AMS:AVTX) shareholders, since the share price is down 58% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 21%. And over the last year the share price fell 48%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 40% in the last 90 days.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Avantium
Avantium isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last three years, Avantium saw its revenue grow by 26% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. The share price has moved in quite the opposite direction, down 17% over that time, a bad result. It seems likely that the market is worried about the continual losses. When we see revenue growth, paired with a falling share price, we can't help wonder if there is an opportunity for those who are willing to dig deeper.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Avantium's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Avantium's TSR, at -44% is higher than its share price return of -58%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 20% in the last year, Avantium shareholders lost 38%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Avantium is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Dutch exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
