Yahoo Finance Heritage Commerce Corp Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Heritage Commerce missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$42m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.17, falling short by 2.4% and 6.4% respectively. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Heritage Commerce
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Heritage Commerce is for revenues of US$177.1m in 2024. This implies a small 2.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 12% to US$0.80 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$178.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.79 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$10.58, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Heritage Commerce at US$11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Heritage Commerce's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Heritage Commerce is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Heritage Commerce's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$10.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Heritage Commerce going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Heritage Commerce (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
