Shareholders in Vaxart, Inc. (NASDAQ:VXRT) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.
Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Vaxart from its twin analysts is for revenues of US$17m in 2020 which, if met, would be a sizeable 135% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 81% to US$0.10. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$12m and US$0.15 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Vaxart's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow 135%, well above its historical decline of 8.7% a year over the past year. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 24% next year. So it looks like Vaxart is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Vaxart is moving incrementally towards profitability. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. More bullish expectations could be a signal for investors to take a closer look at Vaxart.
Analysts are definitely bullish on Vaxart, but no company is perfect. Indeed, you should know that there are several potential concerns to be aware of, including major dilution from new stock issuance in the past year. You can learn more, and discover the 1 other flag we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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