Yahoo Finance The Tourism Holdings Limited (NZSE:THL) Half-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Tourism Holdings Limited (NZSE:THL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.9% to NZ$3.50 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of NZ$449m and statutory earnings per share of NZ$0.26 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Tourism Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tourism Holdings after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Tourism Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tourism Holdings from six analysts is for revenues of NZ$913.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 16% to NZ$0.34. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$905.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.38 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at NZ$4.68, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tourism Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$5.34 and the most bearish at NZ$3.80 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tourism Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tourism Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Tourism Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$4.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tourism Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Tourism Holdings (of which 2 are concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
