Yahoo Finance What's in Store for Biogen (BIIB) This Earnings Season?
Biogen, Inc. BIIB will report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 24, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.65%.
Factors to Consider
Biogen’s sales in the first quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of its multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri amid rising competitive pressure in the MS market. Tecfidera sales have been declining as multiple generic versions of the drug have been launched in the United States and new generic launches are ongoing in several EU countries.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for first-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $224.0 million and $198.8 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Tysabri are pegged at $434 million and $435.2 million, respectively.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, are likely to have been hurt by pricing pressure and an overall contraction of the oral segment of the U.S. market.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Vumerity are pegged at $138.0 million and $152.0 million, respectively.
Overall, the first quarter of 2024 is expected to have been a seasonally weaker quarter for the MS business, driven by higher discounts and allowances and some channel dynamics.
Sales growth of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, is expected to have been moderate in the U.S. market. In ex-U.S. markets, pricing pressure and competition in Europe are expected to have hurt sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Spinraza are pegged at $423.0 and $442.4 million, respectively.
Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Biogen’s new rare disease drug Skyclarys, which was added with the September 2023 acquisition of Reata Pharmaceuticals as well as Qalsody, which was launched for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in the second quarter of 2023.
In 2024, Biogen expects rare disease revenues to grow as it continues to launch Skyclarys in the United States.
Biosimilars revenues are expected to have been modest in the first quarter as the continued launch of Byooviz is likely to have made up for pricing pressure in certain markets.
Investors will be keen to know the collaboration profit-sharing revenues from Biogen’s new drug, Zurzuvae (zuranolone), which was approved for postpartum depression in August 2023 and launched in mid-December 2023. Biogen has a collaboration with Sage Therapeutics SAGE for Zurzuvae. Sage and Biogen equally share profits and losses for the commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States, while outside U.S. markets, Biogen records product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) and pays royalties to Sage.
Contract manufacturing and royalty revenues are expected to have declined in the quarter. Contract manufacturing and royalty revenues include Biogen’s 50% share of revenues (including royalties) from the collaboration with Eisai for new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi, and revenues from the manufacturing of Leqembi. Leqembi/lecanemab gained full approval from the FDA for early Alzheimer’s disease in the United States and broad reimbursement from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in July 2023. Though Leqembi sales were slow in 2023, Biogen expects the same to start growing from 2024.
Lower cost of sales and lower operating costs due to the cost-saving initiatives are expected to have boosted profits.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.47%, on average.
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote
Biogen’s stock has declined 34.4% in the past year compared with a decrease of 18% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is -3.19% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.38 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.49. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Fate Therapeutics FATE has an Earnings ESP of +5.99% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Fate Therapeutics’ stock has declined 20.8% in the past year. Fate Therapeutics topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. FATE has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 28.86%, on average.
Novavax NVAX has an Earnings ESP of +8.30% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novavax’s stock has declined 56.5% in the past year. Novavax beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in the other two. NVAX has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.31%, on average.
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Biogen Inc. (BIIB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (SAGE) : Free Stock Analysis Report
