|Day's range||1.162 - 1.165|
|52-week range||1.102 - 1.200|
One of the most technical setups can be seen on the USDCHF, where Friday ended with a bearish shooting star pattern. The place, where this pattern is present is not random as it is a long-term horizontal resistance (orange). In the smaller time frames, that shooting star is additionally shaped like the head and shoulders formation, which strengtheners the sell signal.
The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi was speaking at the banking conference event in Portugal last week. The main take away from the speech was that the ECB president promised that the ECB would take time to hike interest rates.
The breakaway gap in the Euro (in this article, we use “Euro” to refer to the currency pair EUR/USD) on the 24th of April 2017 on the back of positive first round French election results that weekend broke through a resistance trendline from 2014, a 5-month ascending triangle and the 200-day moving average. It heralded a reversal in the trend of the Euro and what followed was a near 1-year rally that took the price from 1.087 to a high of 1.2558, a rise of 15.5%. After consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, the Euro broke to the downside and has been falling for over a month now.
Eurozone inflation that’s creeping up toward the European Central Bank’s target and Italy’s political crisis could pull policy makers in opposite directions, and the struggle could spell further weakness for the euro. Core inflation stood at 1.1%, higher than the 1% number expected.
Though there still remains a significant amount of uncertainty, recent populist movements in Italy have created the possibility of ending the national use of the Euro. Naturally, as a nation of over 60 million and the third largest nation in the Eurozone (after Germany and France), Italy’s abandonment of the Euro could spark a wide variety of far-reaching changes.
The start of the week’s trading took place around excitement in the political situation in Italy and the unsuccessful attempts of Crude Oil to rebound.
Early Monday trading has seen the downward pressure continue for oil prices. Italian stocks rise on prospects of new elections, and Italian bonds strengthen as the populist coalition fails to form a government.
Traditional haven currencies, such as Japan’s yen and, to a lesser extent, the Swiss franc, were on the rise on Wednesday as trade and geopolitical concerns came back into focus and the selloff in high-yielding emerging markets assets intensified. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he wasn’t happy with how trade talks between the U.S. and China were progressing, and said the much anticipated U.S.-North Korea summit planned for next month in Singapore might not go ahead as planned, which sent ripples through global financial markets. The Swiss franc, which is also considered a haven currency though its moves tend to be more muted, rose 0.5% against the (EURCHF).
The British pound climbed against the dollar Thursday after a report the U.K. government plans to stay in the customs union beyond 2021, while the greenback slightly ease against major rivals but still hovered at highs for 2018. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (IFUS:DX-Y.NYB) was down 0.2% at 93.191, holding around its highest levels of the year, but off Wednesday’s print of 93.391. A broader measure of the greenback, tracking 16 rival monetary units, the WSJ Dollar Index (CALCULATED:BUXX) slipped 0.2% to 86.73.
The Ecofin meetings are a major event in the EU, with leaders from all member states attending each time that they are held. How could the meeting affect the euro?
Considering USDCHF’s latest U-turn from near 50-day SMA, the pair seems all set to challenge the 0.9565-70 area with 0.9535 being immediate resistance to tackle. In case if the pair manage to surpass the 0.9570 mark on a daily closing basis, the 0.9600 & the 0.9640 are likely following numbers to please the buyers ahead of questioning their strength by 200-day SMA level of 0.9660, adjacent to 0.9665-70 horizontal-line. Given the pair’s inability to sustain latest recovery, the 0.9455 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.9415 might entertain short-term sellers. ...
The Euro has continued to face headwinds versus the U.S Dollar short term. While range trading may prevail today, this will vanish as the U.S Fed’s monetary policy decision draws closer on Wednesday.
The Euro has been able to achieve noteworthy gains the past two days against the U.S Dollar, but trading volumes remain light and strong resistance looms ahead.
Wednesday is a FED day and all investors are waiting for the rate decision, statement and the economic projections from the FOMC. Obviously, all that is based on the technical analysis and it all can be easily canceled and declined by the FOMC. The support line is under the pressure recently and the buyers cannot create a bounce.
The Euro continues to experience headwinds in the short term as traders remain cautious due to knock-on effects from the Pound as political concerns remain about the Brexit. However, the Euro is intriguing moving forward and may find buyers who believe it should be valued higher.
Following it’s reversal from 1.1960 during early-week, the EURUSD recently dropped below an immediate TL support, which if sustained could further fetch the pair down towards 1.1755; though, it’s additional declines might be confined by the 1.1730-20 horizontal-region. Should sellers refrain to respect 1.1720 mark, the 1.1665 and the 1.1615 may entertain them, breaking which can drag the quote to 1.1550 support. In case if the pair reverses from current levels, the 1.1875-80 and the 1.1910 could restrict its near-term advances while an upward slanting TL, at 1. ...
USD/CHF It’s been nearly a fortnight since the USDCHF moves are confined within a 105-pip range of 0.9935 to 1.0040. However, pair’s repeated failures to clear the 1.0040, coupled with rising Geo-political uncertainty favoring CHF strength, support more of its downside than the otherwise at least for the short-term. Presently, the 0.9960 and the 0.9950 … Continue reading Important CHF Pairs’ Technical Checks: 08.11.2017
A Technical view of the market with the use of Harmonics Analysis Ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and with a crisis brewing in Spanish Catalonia the EUR is trading heavy or at significant resistance in some crosses which are worth watching for bearish reversals. EURUSD failed at the 50% retrace of the decline from the September … Continue reading EUR Pairs Heavy or at Resistance
The Backstory Tensions have been recently rising in Spain, particularly in the run-up to the Catalonia independence referendum. The Spanish constitution explicitly forbids such a referendum, but this didn’t stop the Catalans from trying to have it. The day of the referendum was a particularly eventful one, as the Spanish government tried hard to prevent it … Continue reading Will the Catalonia Effect Sink the EUR?
The USD/CHF pair bounced above 0.9669 the barrier as the downside attempts were repeatedly contained by strong support provided by top of thickening four-hour cloud reinforced by rising 50SMA. Near term techs regained bullish momentum on fresh rally, with probe above important 0.9698 resistance zone expected to generate fresh bullish signal on firm break above … Continue reading Morning Market Update – USD/CHF