|Day's range||1,323.80 - 1,337.60|
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 11.5x. As you can see in the graph below, AEM’s EBITDA margin is quite high. The company offers strong production growth, which is supported by a strong project pipeline.
Gold futures fell for the third session in a row Monday, hit by strength in the dollar and gains in Treasury yields, as the 10-year note drew ever closer to 3%. For last week, gold futures fell by roughly 0.7%, the first such loss in three weeks. “Despite commodities prices pulling strongly higher in recent sessions, the gold price has failed to partake,” said Richard Perry, market analyst with Hantec Markets.
The downside momentum in the gold market suggests sellers are increasing their pressure on the market. The recent bottom from April 13 at $1335.50 was taken out easily earlier today. If selling volume continues to rise then we could see a test of the April 6 bottom at $1322.60.
Gold has come under pressure and speculators may be looking for lower values. However, U.S Crude Oil has seen consistent buying as the commodity tests new highs.
After testing its highest level since late 2014 last week, crude oil futures could be ripe for a short-term setback if investors decide to focus on the rising rig count and the possibility of further increases in U.S. crude production.
Will the buying be strong enough to power through $69.55, or will enough sellers come in to produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top?
Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 24923.
After significantly outperforming peers in 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) has underperformed this year. Until As of 17, Kinross’s stock had given a negative return of 9.7%—the same as Barrick Gold (ABX). Kinross’s 4Q17 results came in below expectations.
After underperforming its peers in 2017, Goldcorp’s (GG) stock has outperformed YTD (year-to-date). It’s also one of the few major gold stocks to have recorded a positive return YTD performance of 12.5% as of April 17. In comparison, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.5% while the iShares Gold Trust (GLD) has gained 3.0%. Peers Barrick Gold (ABX), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) have fallen.
Cryptocurrencies have continued their acceleration to higher values this weekend as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple have all made new short-term highs. A report says mining Bitcoin has become expensive and could affect its future value. And Coinbase has stopped WikiLeaks from exchanging cryptocurrency for hard cash.
Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the very few gold mining stocks to have given a positive return year-to-date. As of April 17, it has returned 10.9%, compared to a loss of 1.5% for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Its strong project pipeline is the major driver behind its consistent-to-increasing production profile.
Investors are typically interested in gold mining companies’ (GDX)(GDXJ) ability to generate FCF (free cash flow) because FCF helps them invest in future growth—apart from the aim of returning cash to shareholders.
Gold markets initially tried to break above the $1350 level during the week but rolled over to form a bit of a shooting star. However, I see there is more than enough support underneath that could continue to come into the market and singled higher.
Usually, precious metal mining companies follow precious metals for price direction. Precious metals increased on Monday, April 16, 2018, as did most mining stocks.
In this part of our series, we’ll be looking at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: New Gold (NGD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Franco-Nevada (FNV), and Randgold Resources (GOLD). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Mining stocks have high correlations with gold. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and the Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM) also tend to have strong correlations with gold.
Gold prices moved lower sliding through support near the 10-day moving average which is now seen as resistance near 1,343. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line near 1,331. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
Crude fell nearly $1 following Trump tweet saying “Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!” The tweet comes as Saudi has recently said it would be happy with $80-$100 crude prices, and as OPEC/NOPEC keeps their production capped. Crude oil prices rebounded late in the trading session to close nearly unchanged and recapturing the 68-handle after initially testing lower levels.
IAMGOLD (IAG) was the best-performing gold stock of 2017, returning 51.4% for the year. It significantly outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as well as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). In 2018, however, the equation has somewhat reversed. Its stock has returned -4.5% year-to-date as of April 17.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) also warned on April 18, 2018, that the unexpected rise in US inflation could cause significant global tensions, which could force central banks to respond firmly. It added that a hike in inflation in the US could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than expected. The director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, Tobias Adrian, said, “What we are flagging is that at some point markets see shocks in inflation that raise inflation uncertainty and when that happens, that is associated with a rise in long-term interest rates and that might lead to a tightening in financial conditions.” While he said that the uncertainty regarding US inflation is very low, markets could have an outsized reaction to any spike.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) also warned that the downside risks to world financial stability have increased over the past six months. In this context, it added, “Valuations of risky assets are still stretched, with some late-stage credit cycle dynamics emerging, reminiscent of the pre-crisis period.” This it believes could lead to the unwinding of risks, leading to higher risk premiums and repricing of risky assets. The IMF’s view of US equity markets is similar to that of Morgan Stanley’s (MS).
At extreme levels, these ratings could even signal a change in direction, so it’s important for investors to track this data. In the senior and intermediate gold miner space (GDX)(GDXJ), analysts are the most bullish on Goldcorp (GG), assigning it 65% “buy” and 5% “sell” ratings.
Silver markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we have broken above the $17.30 level. This market continues to look for bullish overall, but it is very choppy in general, as it is per usual.