|Day's range||0.6087 - 0.6140|
|52-week range||0.5517 - 0.6538|
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It’s all happening for investors and traders this week, with a plethora of significant news releases out around the world.
The Kiwi is up after financial futures traders narrowed the odds of more aggressive rate hikes by the major central banks.
The buck continued to weaken as reports of a possible 50 bps ECB hike on Thursday boosted the euro.
RBA said the current level of interest rates “was still very low for an economy with a tight labor market and facing a period of higher inflation.”
Overall the robust US data on Friday eased concerns about an imminent recession but is also unlikely to mount an additional case for a 100 bp Fed hike.
The key market driver will be the markets expectations for the widely expected Fed rate hike on July 27.
In domestic news, the manufacturing sector in New Zealand fell back into contraction territory in June, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are going to have a hard time mounting a strong rally if the Fed continues on its aggressive rate-hiking path.
The RBNZ raised the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, a level not seen since March 2016.
Over 90% of economists, 20 of 22, forecast the RBNZ will hike by 50 basis points to 2.50% at its July 13 meeting with only two saying 25 basis points.
Traders are positioning themselves ahead of Wednesday’s widely expected RBNZ rate hike and red-hot U.S. CPI report.
The NZD/USD swung between losses and gains on Friday after data showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls in June.
Risk sentiment improved as stocks climbed following the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes.
Australia’s central bank will deliver another half percentage-point interest rate hike on Tuesday as it fights to tame surging inflation.
The Kiwi remains at risk due to worries over a global economic recession that are pressuring commodity-linked currencies.
The price action in the Aussie and Kiwi indicate there are worries over whether the Federal Reserve can deliver a soft landing.
The catalyst driving the Kiwi lower is a dire business survey that underlined the risk that rising interest rates would lead to recession.
The key report and likely a market moving event will be the U.S. Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply in the June quarter, falling to its lowest level in over 30 years.
RBA Gov Lowe will speak on Tuesday and is likely to reiterate that more interest rate hikes will be needed, given inflation could hit 7% later.
On Friday, the greenback was supported by somewhat hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Although the Kiwi finished higher, the currency struggled early in the session after data showed an unexpected contraction in the economy.
New Zealand posted a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of NZ$8.5 billion in the first quarter of 2022, Stats NZ said on Wednesday.