|Day's range||0.721 - 0.728|
|52-week range||0.6792 - 0.7559|
The New Zealand dollar initially tried to rally during the trading sessions that made up the previous week, but as you can see did fail at the 0.7350 level. Because of this, we continue the overall consolidation that we have been in over the last couple of months, as the market has not been able to overcome the stringent resistance above.
5 Year Daily Chart of the VX futures shows that as long as the VX futures remain over $16.28, the equity index futures will be weak. For The Emini S&P (ES), as long as we stay below 2783.50, we are in a short setup for the S&P. The morning price action today may likely try a run-up into the initial resistance zone in the 2763.50 area and even into the secondary resistance line to about 2772.75 and this has been the usual practice in recent days, attempt a move up and fail to support levels.
With the failure to sustain its bounce off the 50-day SMA, EURUSD reignites the importance of the same SMA level before crucial inflation release. Should the CPI figures disappoint USD Bulls, the pair may continue recovering towards 1.2360 and then to the 1.2480 but a month-long descending trend-line, at 1.2420, could confine its following upside. Given the pair’s daily closing beneath the 1.2150, the 1.2090-85 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.2030 could become Bears’ favorites.
The Australian Dollar continues to receive support in reaction to President Trump’s granting of an exemption to Australia from his new tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The Dollar/Yen posted a gain on Monday as investors kept an eye on a suspected cover-up of a cronyism scandal involving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his close ally, Finance Minister Taro Aso.
The New Zealand dollar fell during trading on Monday, in a bit of a “risk off” move. However, I think that there is plenty of support underneath, so I think it’s only a matter of time before the buyers return. The 0.7250 level underneath is massive support, and I think that we will continue to go towards the 0.73 level above.
Late in the session on Friday, the AUD/USD spiked to the upside in reaction to the news that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order exempting Australia from new steel and aluminum tariffs.
The New Zealand dollar was slightly positive during the week, as we continue to find support near the 0.72 region. The market looks as if it is trying to break out to the upside, but there’s obviously a lot of noise just above. I think we are going to continue to see a bit of choppiness over the next several weeks.
Following some solid trade figures out of China this morning and a better than expect GDP number out of Japan, there may be more fuel in Trump’s belly to roll out punitive trade tariffs that will likely lead central banks to hit the pause button
The Aussie and the Kiwi are trading higher early Thursday in reaction to stronger-than-expected trade balance data from Australia and China.
Trump’s request to China to cut the deficit with the U.S. by $1 billion dollar was an unusual request because the amount is so small. It actually looks like a rounding error.
The RBA left rates unchanged, while striking a more optimistic tone in this morning’s statement, with the market panic of a trade war easing to support the equity markets and commodity currencies this morning, though it’s not over yet.
Capping the Australian Dollar’s early gains are weak economic reports which showed a drop in the Current Account and lower than expected Retail Sales.
The US dollar is between a rock and a hard place, as the aggressive rate hike is quite likely (experts see it as 50% likely, which is very probable), while the US economy may from now on bar any foreign competition.
Our setup for today is the EURNZD, where most recently, the buyers had a great time and most of the days in the second half of February and the beginning of March finished with a rise. To be precise, last seven trading days finished with the price closing a day above the opening.
Besides the uncertainty surrounding the tariff news, there is a slew of major economic data this week from Australia and the United States.
The Yen also rallied after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda surprised currency markets by saying the central bank would consider an exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy if it met its inflation target in the year ending in March 2020.
The New Zealand dollar fell during the week, breaking below the 0.7250 level. We tested the 0.72 handle but started to see a little bit of a push back on Friday. The market is very noisy, as we are trying to break out above a significant amount of resistance above.
Based on the downside momentum into Wednesday’s close, traders are likely to drive the NZD/Usd into the intermediate 50% level at .7195. The bias will shift to the downside under this level. This should trigger a change in trend on a trade through .7175.
The New Zealand dollar has drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 0.7250 level. However, we have found plenty of support in that area, and it looks as if the buyers are starting to come back.
Today, all eyes are on Jerome Powell and his first big speech as a new FED Chairman. If You want attractions, feel free to enter any trade with the USD. If You try to avoid risk and excess volatility, maybe you should aim for other, more exotic instruments.
With the eleven-week old ascending trend-line’s ability to confine EURUSD’s downturn, chances of the pair’s up-moves to 1.2370 and then to the 1.2410 are brighter; however, it’s following advances might find it difficult to surpass the 1.2450-55 resistance-area, which if broken could further propel the quote to 1.2520 and then to the 1.2555. Moreover, pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.2555 could help it challenge the 61.8% FE level of 1.2715. Should Fed Chair’s testimony drags the pair southwards, aforementioned TL support, around 1. ...
Powell’s testimony could determine whether the greenback’s recovery from a three-year low can be sustained.
The New Zealand dollar has been extraordinarily volatile during the trading session on Monday, shooting straight up like a rocket initially, but finding enough resistance at the 0.7350 level to rollover significantly from there.
Based on last week’s close at .7290, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7306 to .7275.