|Day's range||0.688 - 0.692|
|52-week range||0.6792 - 0.7559|
The direction of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars will be largely influenced by demand for risk. Look for a short-covering rally if it’s a risk-on day. Watch for further selling pressure and an extension of this week’s losses if it’s a risk-off session.
In case if the pair continue trading southwards after 1.1440, the 1.1370, the 1.1330 and the 1.1300 may please the Bears. Assuming that the pair reverses from current levels, the 1.1650 and the 1.1730 can act as immediate resistances before highlighting the 1.1835-50 area for one more time. Alike EURUSD, the NZDUSD is also near to important support-zone, namely the 0.6885-80, but break of which might not trigger the pair’s plunge as an upward slanting trend-line, at 0.6860 now, could still challenge the sellers.
The global financial markets responded to tariffs on $200bn worth of China imports into the U.S and China’s promise to respond, both sides seemingly unwilling to back down. If Trump wanted a weak Dollar, a trade war is not the way.
Lingering concerns over the US-China trade dispute could continue to pressure the AUD/USD and NZD/USD or at the least limit their upside potential if there is a short-covering rally. The fact that both Forex pairs haven’t “crashed” suggests that investors feel that some solution will be reached as long as both parties are still at the negotiation table.
Is the trade war on? Following China’s response to the U.S tariffs on China exports to the U.S, it could get ugly, with Trump’s first tweet of the week likely to have a material bearing of risk sentiment through the week.
The bias is to the downside because the trend is down, however, if there isn’t any may news regarding US-China trade relations, traders may take the opportunity to book some profits and perhaps form a short-term bottom due to oversold technical conditions.
The New Zealand dollar broke down significantly during the week, slicing through the 0.70 level, and formed a nasty red candle. At this point, by closing as low as we did on this candle, it suggests that the sellers are very much still alive.
The New Zealand dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, showing signs of confusion and of course difficulty near the 0.6950 level. Overall, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy.
The markets were mixed through the early part of the day, the introduction of tariffs having a mixed impact on the markets, with the Yen finding little support ahead of what will likely be a noisy day ahead for the Oval Office.
The New Zealand dollar rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, even though we are very tight, and it shows so much in the way of noise. However, it looks as if we are trying to overcome a major resistance barrier above, and once we do, this could be one of the better currencies to be involved with.
The New Zealand dollar shot higher during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 0.7050 level. That’s an area that is previous resistance, and therefore it’s not surprising that the market pauses in this area. I think short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities, with the 0.70 level being a bit of a floor. As I record this, we are awaiting the FOMC Statement, which of course is going to be massively influential when it comes to the US dollar.
For the FX traders, today is all about the FED and all the events surrounding this institution like the rate decision, statement and economic projections. USDCAD is attacking the upper line of the ascending triangle pattern. H4 candle closing above the horizontal resistance will give us a mid-term buy signal.
The New Zealand dollar fell slightly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 0.70 level underneath the find support. By doing so, it looks as if we have continued to see the 0.70 level as important. As I record this, we have bounced nicely, and it looks as if we continue to try to build up momentum.
While there’s plenty of chatter on trade, Brexit, Italy and North Korea, focus will be on the FED later in the day, a rate hike largely priced in, with inflation numbers out of the UK also there to provide direction for the GBP.
While the 1.1830-40 horizontal-region seems crucial for the EURUSD in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.1900 and the 1.1950 resistances, pair’s upside beyond 1.1950 might have a challenging task to surpass the 200-day SMA level of 1.2010 on a D1 basis. In case if the quote provides a Daily closing above 1.2010, the 1.2100 and the 1.2160, comprising 100-day SMA, could act as intermediate halts before highlighting the 1.2280 TL resistance. On the downside, the 1.1730 and the 1.1675 could entertain the sellers ahead of questioning them with 1.1640-45 support-zone. ...
Following some weak stats out of the Eurozone, the EUR maintained its position through the morning, on expectations of a hawkish ECB, with today’s inflation numbers likely to hit the Dollar should they impress.
The New Zealand dollar rallied, pulled back, and then rally again during the trading session on Monday. The market looks as if we are trying to break out to the upside, and if we can break above the recent highs, I think that the market will continue to grind its way to the upside and go much higher.
Early Tuesday, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading lower as investors wait for news from the summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un. Traders are showing almost no reaction to economic data from Australia.
Based on Friday’s close at .7030, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .7031.
It was a cautious Asian session ahead of tomorrow’s Summit and, while there are some material stats out of the UK that will provide direction for the Pound, it’s quiet elsewhere, leaving the markets little else to focus on but Trump.
Economic data will be robust this week, highlighted with U.S. May’s inflation report Tuesday, a rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday, and retail sales Thursday. Traders will also get the opportunity to react to a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe and reports on the Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.
The Australian Dollar rose sharply early in the week, but the rally faded as investors reacted to not so friendly domestic economic data, trade war fears and the upcoming interest rate hike by the Fed.
The New Zealand dollar rallied during a significant portion of the week but turned around to form a bit of a shooting star. Because of this, I believe that the next week is going to be very important. I think that given enough time, the market will build up the necessary momentum to either break down, or perhaps break above the top of the shooting star. Quite simply, this is a market that is waiting for that binary signal to make its next move.
The New Zealand dollar did very little during the session on Friday, as we are going sideways in general. The market looks likely to continue to show a lot of support underneath, especially at the large, round, psychologically important 0.70 handle.
It’s all about the G7 and the Dollar and the Yen are the beneficiaries of the market’s caution as Trump looks to take center stage once more.