|Day's range||0.628 - 0.631|
|52-week range||0.6271 - 0.6972|
After taking a “wait and see” tone in August and September, RBA policymaker makers have “waited and seen” the results, which could mean another rate cut as soon as its policy meeting on October 1.
The Chinese yuan and NZ dollar are quiet on Thursday, but the Aussie continues to lose ground after the unemployment rate rose higher. As expected, the Fed lower interest rates but sought to reassure the markets that the U.S. economy is in good shape
It’s a big day for the Pound, with retail sales figures due out ahead of the BoE monetary policy decision. Will there be any dissenters to sink the Pound?
With economic data on the lighter side, the market focus will be on Brexit chatter and the FOMC. For the Loonie, inflation figures will also influence.
The minutes show that the RBA was ready to consider further policy easing as needed to support growth and inflation targets, while it was reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates.
Uncertainty over how the U.S will respond to the attacks on Saudi oil feeds could leave the markets tentative ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
In my opinion, the RBA came across as a touch more optimistic when it left interest rates on hold earlier in the month. Although I expect at least one more rate cut before the end of the year, the minutes may emphasize patience, while mentioning the need for more fiscal help for the economy from the government.
Attacks on Saudi oil fields drove demand for the Yen and the Loonie as oil prices surged. Johnson is in focus later today and the GBP needs progress.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6377, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6391.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD could break sharply after the Fed announcements if central bankers come across as hawkish, leading to the reduction in the chances of another Fed rate cut before the end of the year.
It’s risk-on through the Asian session as the markets respond to the ECB move. On the day ahead, the focus will be on Brexit and U.S retail sales figures.
Keep in mind that the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are being driven higher by short-covering and some aggressive counter-trend speculative buying. We could see further short-term upside action in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD until global risk aversion returns.
Tensions between the U.S and China ease, supporting risk ahead of the heavily anticipated ECB monetary policy decision later today.
The bearish tone in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD is rapidly softening because of the scheduling of the trade talks. The move has changed the timing of the next interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) by pushing them back by one month each.
The price action suggests the bearishness has dampened quite a bit since the announcement of the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China.
The Aussie Dollar takes another hit this morning. With stats on the lighter side on the day ahead, the focus will remain on Brexit and monetary policy.
The trade balance data is further proof that China’s economy is weakening because of the U.S. tariffs. This could help limit gains in the Aussie and Kiwi on Monday. The move by the PBOC to add more stimulus is potentially supportive, but this will take time to trickle through the economy.