|Day's range||0.677 - 0.681|
|52-week range||0.6426 - 0.7437|
Both the Aussie and Kiwi are likely to remain under pressure today unless there is surprise positive developments over U.S.-China trade relations. Traders are still trying to figure out if there will be higher level negotiations in Washington on January 30-31 amid a report on Tuesday that the meeting had been canceled.
Employment numbers give the Aussie Dollar an early jump on the majors, with economic data and the ECB bringing the EUR into focus.
We could be looking at a mixed market on Wednesday with the NZD/USD continuing to strengthen on the inflation news and the AUD/USD weakening on U.S. – China concerns.
With trade data out of Japan reflecting the slowdown in Asia, Capitol Hill, the Oval Office and Parliament will be in focus through the day.
The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar early Wednesday in reaction to data which showed that consumer inflation edged higher in the fourth quarter, dimming the possibility of an interest rate cut. The Dollar/Yen is recovering from yesterday’s weakness, primarily due to the slight recovery in U.S. equity markets. Short-covering ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision is also taking place.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% resistance cluster at .6778 to .6781.
Ever since the EURUSD declined from 1.1570, it’s moves can be depicted by a short-term descending trend-line, which in-turn presently drags the quote towards 1.1325 support-line. Should prices refrain to respect the 1.1325 rest-point, the 1.1300 and the 1.1265-60 may lure the sellers ahead of pushing them to aim for recent low around 1.1215. If at all the pair manage to cross the 1.1370 TL barrier, the 1.1420 and the 1.1450 could entertain counter-trend traders prior to challenging them with 1.1490-1.1500 resistance-zone. Though, pair’s successful break of 1. ...
The bleak economic forecasts are likely to continue to pressure the Aussie and the Kiwi on Tuesday especially if investors start to move money into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. Basically, if the global economy slows especially China then the Australian and New Zealand economies should feel similar pressure. The would push any chances of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further out into the future.
It’s risk off early in the day, growth forecast revisions by the IMF and central banks coming amidst softer GDP numbers.
Based on last week’s price action and the close at .6744, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6781.
With a Plan B seemingly in the wind, Theresa May could be in hot water later today, with Parliament getting restless.
The tone changed from short-term bullish to short-term bearish last week when U.S. Treasury yields started to rise. This helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment. Yields are being boosted by increased demand for risky assets tied to the optimism over the positive developments in the trade talks between the United States and China.
Based on the price action on Thursday and Friday, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6781.
The NZD/USD is currently trading inside yesterday’s range. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on January 15.
Geo-political risk will remain the key driver ahead of the weekend, with Brexit and the possibility of a reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods on the table.
Having failed to sustain 100-day SMA breakout, the EURUSD now rests around 50-day SMA level of 1.1380, breaking which nine-week old support-line, at 1.1320, and the 1.1260 can reappear on the chart. In case prices continue declining under 1.1260, the 1.1215 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.1080 may gain sellers’ attention. Meanwhile, the 1.1475 comprising 100-day SMA, followed by the 1.1550 & the 1.1570 could confine the pair’s near-term advances prior to challenging the 1.1610-25 region including 200-day SMA. If at all the pair manage to provide a daily closing beyond 1.1625, the ...
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD could remain in a range on Wednesday, underpinned by the hopes that China will soon announce a stimulus package. As noted on Tuesday, traders will be particularly sensitive to any positive or negative comments about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.
The strong momentum into Friday’s close suggests the rally will likely continue this week especially if the U.S. Dollar resumes its downtrend and an air of optimism over the timely end of the U.S.-China trade dispute lingers.
With the Brexit deal sunk and Theresa May needing to head back to Brussels, there’s just a vote of no confidence to survive later today…
Appetite for risk should continue to generate the Aussie and Kiwi’s upside momentum today on the back of positive comments from China.
It’s “risk on” in the early hours, with the main event of the day being Brexit. Has Theresa May done enough and will it sink the Pound?
Today’s lower price action in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD may only be a knee-jerk reaction to the data, which gave investors an excuse to book profits from the strong rally since the beginning of the year. Although a bearish surprise, the trade data is old or stale information. Currency traders tend to look forward so I expect the data to have a limited downside effect on the Aussie and Kiwi.
Based on last week’s price action and the close at .6834, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at .6818.
There are no major reports from Australia or New Zealand this week so the focus will remain on developments in the U.S. The price action this week will continue to be driven by the direction of the U.S. Dollar. The greenback will largely be influenced by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and yields will be moved by appetite for risk and a number of economic reports, Fed speakers and the government shutdown.