|Day's range||0.685 - 0.685|
|52-week range||0.6426 - 0.7398|
There is only one report today in the U.S. the NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to come in at 63, up from 62. However, all eyes will be on the RBA minutes early Tuesday. After the initial reaction to the news, investors will shift their focus back to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcements on Wednesday at 1800 GMT.
It’s risk-on through the early part of the day, which sees the Dollar on the defensive once more, A light economic calendar put the FOMC in focus.
Based on last week’s close at .6846 and the two-sided price action, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .6831.
As far as the RBA is concerned. The minutes may clarify how many policymakers are in favor of a rate cut and how many are in favor of a rate hike. The market has already spoken, pricing in a rate cut for August.
The Pound was the leader of the pack, with a vote against a no-deal departure and a Brexit extension providing much-needed support.
Positive developments over U.S.-China trade relations are likely to continue to boost demand for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. The Forex pairs could receive an additional boost if U.S. government reports come in weaker-then-expected.
Optimism on trade and the Brexit delay supported risk appetite early on. Economic data out of the U.S will need to be good to reverse early losses.
With Australian futures fully pricing a quarter point cut in the 1.5 percent cash rate as soon as August, the AUD/USD is likely to remain under pressure over the near-term. The NZD/USD is also likely to follow the Aussie Dollar lower. Furthermore, stable rates in the U.S. are also expected to exert pressure on the two currencies.
Positive Durable Goods Order data merely supported the plunging USD Index; Yen to remain silent amid risk-sentiments; AUD drifts near two-month low
The NZD/USD Is bullish on h1 timeframe. The NZD/USD is a slow-moving pair and that is reflected on it ATR numbers, so patience is needed. In the wake of Brexit data, headlines and news, the NZD/USD is a safer pair to trade.
It’s all eyes on Parliament today. Could members of Parliament actually vote in favor of a no-deal Brexit?
Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at .6858.
On Wednesday, traders will continue to monitor the situation in the UK over Brexit. All eyes also continue to be on US-China trade negotiations, which continue to progress without making any tradable headlines. Recent comments from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer have noted that both economic powerhouses are close to a deal while offering little details on how close.
It’s a positive start to the day for the Pound. Markets have a worst-case scenario being a delay, while a soft could be the outcome if Theresa May wins.
Look for some volatility following the release of the U.S. retail sales report at 12:30 GMT especially if the report comes out weaker than expected. Core Retail Sales are expected to have risen 0.4%, while Retail Sales are expected to come in flat.
While Dollar strength kicked in this morning, today’s retail sales figures and sentiment towards Brexit and trade talks will be key.
There are no major reports out of Australia or New Zealand this week so traders are not likely to change their minds about a future rate cut by the RBA and RBNZ. This is likely to limit any gains. The wildcard will be news about a U.S.-China trade deal. The Aussie and Kiwi are likely to be supported by the announcement of a meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi Jinping, or a trade deal which could bring an end to the year-long trade dispute.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a 50% level at .6768.
Trade data gives the Aussie Dollar an early boost as the market shift focus towards this afternoon’s ECB press conference.
Based on Wednesday’s price action and today’s early move, the direction of the NZD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6762.
The sell-off in the AUD/USD could continue on Thursday with the release of the Australian Retail Sales report and the latest news on Australia’s Trade Balance.
GDP numbers out of Australia added to the doom and gloom early on. The Bank of Canada could sink the Loonie later today. Stats support a more dovish outlook.
It’s risk off through the early part of the day. Economic data out of China suggests more doom and gloom as the National People’s Congress gets underway.
Optimism over a trade agreement between the U.S and China provided a boost for risk appetite at the start of the week. The economic calendar is light.