|Day's range||0.67 - 0.672|
|52-week range||0.6547 - 0.7437|
Trump’s comments could play an important role in the dollar’s dynamics as the markets fear that Trump’s words may be a signal to search for more “dovish” candidates for key positions.
Trump had the markets guessing again and more surprises are likely to be on the horizon, as the markets prepare for tomorrow’s trade talks.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are showing no response to higher U.S. equity markets which tends to indicate increased demand for higher risk assets. A drop in U.S. Treasury yields also seems to be having little or no effect on demand for the Aussie and Kiwi. Higher gold prices, which tend to indicate demand for commodities, are also having a limited effect on the currencies.
A lack of data through the day will leave the markets focused on geo-political risk, a number of risks providing food for thought at the start of the week.
Based on last week’s price action and the prolonged move down, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6621 and the uptrending Gann angle at .6597.
The Aussie and Kiwi moved higher off their multi-year lows late in the week. Profit taking following a sell-off in risk currencies amid deteriorating risk sentiment helped underpin the Forex pairs. With the major fundamentals still bearish, any gains are likely to be limited this week. Nonetheless, improved risk appetite in reaction to stabilization in Turkey and a positive outcome from the trade talks between the U.S. and China, could underpin prices at times.
While inflation numbers are due out of the Eurozone and Canada, it’s all eyes on the U.S Dollar, with the markets getting ready for U.S – China trade talks.
The main driving force today in the market will be investor aversion to risk. Risk-on, and the Aussie and Kiwi benefit. Risk-off, and they both resume this week’s downtrend.
The catalyst behind the shift in investor sentiment is a report that a Chinese delegation will travel to the United States late in August to hold trade talks.
The Dollar slides early, with the Asian equity markets rebounding from heavy losses early as hopes of a U.S – China agreement on trade surface.
Now that the NZD/USD has posted a lower-lower, the number to watch all day is yesterday’s close at .6574. For trend traders, continue to play for an eventual move to .6346. For aggressive counter-trend traders, watch for a closing price reversal bottom and stop buying weakness while trying to pick a bottom. We’re going through a news driven event. This means you’re going to have to time your buy with a change in the news and that’s too hard to do.
Inflation numbers out of the UK will need to jump to hit pause on the Pound’s demise, while U.S retail sales could influence a resurgent Dollar.
While break of 1.1510-1.1500 dragged the EURUSD to thirteen-month low, the 200-week SMA, at 1.1355 now, is likely offering an intermediate halt to the pair’s south-run towards the 1.1300-1.1280 horizontal-region. In case the quote refrains to respect the 1.1280 rest-point, the 1.1210 and the 1.1120 might entertain the sellers. Alternatively, the 1.1440-50 may restrict the pair’s immediate advances before highlighting the 1.1500-1.1510 support-turned-resistance. Given the buyers’ ability to surpass 1.1510 barrier, the 1.1565-70 and the 1. ...
Traders looking for increased volatility during the Asian trading hours should be looking for the best pairs and strategies to maximize their profit. In this article, we will learn the most basic things a trader should know before start trading the Asian forex markets.
Since the NZD/USD begins the session in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom, yesterday’s close at .6579 and yesterday’s low at .6564 are the key levels to watch today.
The Turkish Lira is on the slide again as the Asian markets respond to Friday’s late moves, risk appetite on the slide and the Yen and USD up early.
The week starts with the NZD/USD down 10 weeks from its last main top at .7061. This puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. The chart pattern will not indicate a change in trend, but it could signal the start of a 2 to 3 week counter-trend rally.
The table has been set for further weakness in the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. However, short-term technical factors could at times trigger a few short-covering rallies due to oversold conditions. With the central bank activity out of the way, traders are going to focus on appetite for risk due to the political uncertainty in Turkey. Prices could plunge further if the situation in Turkey raises contagion fears in the Euro Zone.
The New Zealand Dollar closed sharply lower against the U.S. Dollar last week after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly committed to keep interest rates at record lows through to 2020 on disappointing economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia wasn’t as dovish as the RBNZ, nonetheless, the Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. The Dollar/Yen was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Geopolitical tensions in Turkey drove the Lira sharply lower, causing investors to dump higher-yielding currencies like the Euro, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Money then flowed into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index spiked to its highest level since May 17, 2017 after the Euro plunged against the greenback to its lowest level in more than a year as a steep drop in the Turkish Lira sparked a massive flight-to-safety exodus into the dollar.
The Aussie and Kiwi plunged after a report said European Central Bank officials are growing concerned about the exposure of Euro Zone banks to Turkey’s banking sector. These elevated tensions are bad news for growth prospects, commodity markets and risk appetites throughout the global marketplace. The RBA confirmed it has downgraded its 2018 inflation forecast, after flagging the change in Tuesday’s rate decision. Additionally, its longer-term outlook for inflation was little-changed. The central bank now expects core inflationary pressure to remain low through the end of 2020. The latest set of projections confirmed that the RBA still looks set to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
It’s a big day on the data front, with the GBP, the USD and the Loonie in focus, the Pound in dire need of some positive numbers to ease the pain.
Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact.
The dollar is also being supported because the U.K. can’t agree on a Brexit strategy. The New Zealand Reserve Bank said earlier today that it won’t raise rates until 2020. The European Central Bank is only preparing its plan to end stimulus and Saudi Arabia is signal handedly weakening the Canadian Dollar by ordering money managers to dump the Loonie.