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Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6652. This is the last potential resistance angle before the .6682 and .6686 main tops.
Negative comments ahead of trade talks and rhetoric from Iran in response to the prospect of sanctions dampen the mood ahead of the European open.
Based on last week’s close at .6588, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at .6581. This is formed by a combination of an uptrending Gann angle and the short-term pivot.
It’s a mixed start to the day as the markets look to gauge what’s next for Iran. Any retaliation to new sanctions will need to be looked out for…
On Wednesday, expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave interest rates unchanged, while reiterating its easing bias and highlighting the risks to global growth. The RBNZ could also express concerns about rate cuts in the United States and Australia since they will have an impact on the value of the New Zealand Dollar.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6588, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .6583.
Will the BoE continue to talk of the need to hike rates at an aggressive pace or has the economic data and shift in policy elsewhere caused a reevaluation…
It’s all eyes on the FED later in the day as the Asian markets respond to news of Trump and Xi’s planned G20 Summit meeting.
We’re not expecting too much movement ahead of the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. Both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are expected to remain under pressure because the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are expected to cut interest rates in the near future. The Fed is not expected to cut rates in June, but its monetary policy statement should open the door for rate cuts in either July or September.
The RBA talks of further rate cuts as the UK Tory Party Leadership race heats up. Stats out of the Eurozone will also be relevant later this morning.
The concern for traders is not likely whether the Fed cuts rates or not at the June meeting, but how dovish it comes across for cuts in July or September. The market has been driving Treasury yields lower due to uncertainty over trade and geopolitics, the economy has been steady to weaker. Fed policymakers may not be influenced by the external events as much and may maintain focus on the economic data.
The short-term range is .6481 to .6682. Its retracement zone at .6582 to .6558 is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. Trading below this zone is helping to give the NZD/USD a downside bias. This zone should be considered resistance.
It’s a litmus test for the U.S economy today. Retail sales and consumer sentiment figures will give the FED an idea of how consumers really feel.
The Greenback is on the back foot early as the Asian markets respond to softer inflation out of the U.S. Australian employment figures failed to impress this morning.
The GBP/USD pair stood higher after the release of positive UK Average Earnings data. Overnight New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Sales data impacted the NZD/USD movements in the initial hours.
Early in the week, we’ll be watching the reaction by Treasury traders to the news of the postponement of U.S. tariffs against Mexico that were supposed to start on Monday, June 10. This could ease pressure on the economy and encourage long bond investors to take profits. Since they move inverse to bond prices, yields could rise, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6664, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6634.
U.S nonfarm payrolls and wage growth will be the main event of the day. Outside of the stats, will be there any trade chatter to rile the markets?
Ultimately, the direction of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD on Thursday will be determined by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. This is because traders primarily follow the interest rate differential between U.S. Government bond yields and Australian and New Zealand Government bond yields.
Dollar weakness continues in the early part of the day as the market focus shifts to today’s service sector PMI numbers…