AUDUSD Forecast Video for 25.05.23
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar had a rough session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of trouble out there and are waiting to see whether we will have more of a “risk off” type of market. This could be about to kick off a major leg lower, and if the market does close to a fresh, new swing low, then the Australian dollar could very well drop down to the 0.64 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I do think will continue to see plenty of sellers if we are going to continue to see a lot of trouble.
On the other hand, if the market were to see a turnaround, then we could reenter the previous consolidation area. It’s probably worth noting that the market has recently broken through the 0.66 level a couple of times, so unless we can hang on to significant bearishness, we could very well see this market turn right back around. However, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see the breakdown, mainly due to the fact that we have so much in the way of concern around the world. Furthermore, the market has to pay close attention to the commodity markets because there will be a great influence on the Aussie as it is Australia’s biggest export.
Pay particular attention to China, as Chinese demand is always a major input into the Aussie economy. Even if we do rally from here, it’s very likely that there will be a lot of resistance just above, especially near the 50-Day EMA, which is currently at the 0.67 level. In general, this is a situation where we will continue to see a lot of volatility, which can offer a lot of opportunities. At this point, I do favor shorting the Australian dollar rather than buying it, but that does not necessarily mean that we are going to shoot straight up in the air. At this point, it is probably only a matter of time before we see exhaustion enter the market on any short-term rally. All things being equal, this is a market that is going to struggle to see a lot of upward momentum.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire