|Day's range||7,346.3413 - 7,390.6377|
|52-week range||5,750.5000 - 7,390.6401|
The cash stock market is expected to see big losses on the opening on Tuesday because it was closed when Netflix made the announcement that drove futures contracts sharply lower before Monday’s close. U.S. Core Retail Sales posted an impressive 0.5% gain, beating the 0.4% estimate. New Zealand’s consumer price index rose by 0.4% in the June quarter, below the 0.5% increase expected by the financial markets.
NEW YORK, July 16, 2018-- Nasdaq today announced that PepsiCo, Inc., will become a component of the NASDAQ-100 Index ® and the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index prior to market open on Monday, July 23, 2018. ...
Based on the inside move chart pattern, which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to 7414.25 and 7367.00. The short-term range is 7204.50 to 7414.25. If the selling picks up momentum under 7367.00, we could see a break into its 50% level or pivot at 7309.25.
U.S. retail sales posted a firm gain in June, helped by increases in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, solidifying expectations for robust economic growth in the second quarter. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunged below $69, dropping a whopping 3 percent after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said some oil buyers could get waivers to continue buying Iranian supplies despite American sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.
With the index closing at an all-time high, there is no resistance so the emphasis will shift to the chart pattern. If buyers take out 7414.25 then trader reaction to last week’s close at 7393.00 will determine the direction of the index this week.
Is Trade War Really A Good Thing For The US? The uncertainty surrounding the trade war between the U.S. and China has eased recently after the two world largest economies have signaled their intention to sit at the negotiation table. In addition, investors also started to realize that the effects of tariffs have substantially exaggerated.
The markets continue to be shackled by geo-political headwinds, with Trump at the center of it all, the U.S – Russian Summit, trade wars, Iran sanctions to name but a few of the U.S President’s handiwork.
With just over 5 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting thus far, earnings growth is up 16.37 percent. U.S. import prices fell the most in more than two years in June. U.S. consumer sentiment hit a six-month low as tariff worries more than doubled, dampening optimism over the economy. The preliminary data showed that consumer sentiment fell to 97.1, its lowest level since January. The Federal Reserve said Friday it expects low unemployment and rising inflation will keep it on track to raise interest rates at a gradual pace over the next two years. Finally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Friday he favors one more interest-rate hike this year, given current economic conditions.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 7382.75. The index is running a little hot, averaging more than 32 points per day since the main bottom at 6956.00. It needs to correct into a Gann angle soon or the rally will burn out and the next break will be even more dramatic.
As noted previously, broader US markets fell yesterday amid escalating US-China trade tensions. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) fell 0.55%, while NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) fell 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively. A vicious cycle seems to be building up in the trade war.
Today’s U.S. consumer inflation report didn’t trigger the same volatile response in the markets we saw from the U.S. producer inflation report on Wednesday, but nonetheless, it was impressive.
We’re going to stick with our outlook for higher stock prices because earnings carry more weight at this time than does the trade dispute. I don’t think we’re going to see any significant sell-off in the stock market until the impact of the tariffs starts to show up in the economic numbers, and even after that, in the projections by U.S. Federal Reserve Policymakers. Of course, if China places a tariff on U.S. crude oil imports then it will be a whole new ballgame and time to reassess my bullish outlook.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at 7212.00. This angle held earlier as support. Basically, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 7254.50 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 7212.00. Holding between these two numbers will indicate investor indecision.
This is a very important point because earnings actually represent stale data. They represent the earnings from last quarter. The third and fourth quarter results will be the first during the period of full tariffs from the U.S. on Chinese goods and the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods from China. They will tell the actual story about the impact of the tariffs on company earnings. So at this time, investors should be looking beyond last quarter earnings and at any guidance from companies that mention the impact of the tariffs.
Gold futures are edging lower early Friday with the news about the escalation of the U.S-China trade dispute, taking a backseat to the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. Traders expect the headline number to come in at about 195K versus 223K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise 0.3%.
On a holiday-shortened trading day, the tones coming from the last 24 hours of trading have suggested a risk-off attitude as Gold finds support around the 1240.00 area and Equities are some of Monday’s gains.
The general tone in the global equity markets was cautious as investors continued to monitor the developments over trade. China’s benchmark indexes extended their losses over worries Beijing’s trade relations with the United States are worsening. Concerns over trade relations continued to drive investors into the USD/JPY and U.S. Treasurys. Trade tensions also supported the dollar against commodity-linked currencies, like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Crude oil is up after Libya declared force majeure on significant amounts of its supply.
We’re going to continue to see reactions and counter-trend reactions in the U.S. stock markets because the direct economic damage from the tariffs imposed on the U.S. appears to be relatively contained, at least for now. However, stock markets in Asia and Europe are likely to start feeling selling pressure now.
Risk aversion on trade tensions carried into the European session yesterday morning was replaced with a relief rally in the US pre-market as President Trump appeared to go easy on China and its ability to invest in the US.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the index during the regular session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at .7047.75 to 7047.50. The daily chart shows that the way of least resistance is down. If buyers do come in to support the market, the next rally is likely to be labored because of the series of resistance levels.
Usually when these situations arise, the markets take care of any discrepancies fairly quickly so I will assume that a mild stock market recovery will indicate that there is some truth in the matter, but maybe the article went a little overboard. However, a full recovery of Monday’s losses, even if it takes a couple of days should raise some questions about irresponsible journalism by the Journal. We’ll be watching to see if this story pans out.
The Dollar/Yen traded lower on Monday, putting it in a position to hit a two-week low, as worries about an escalating trade war between the United States and its major trade partners continued to weigh on appetite for risk.
The new week begins with good, bad and ugly events that could trigger volatile reactions in the stock, crude oil and gold markets. Global stocks trade lower on trade war concerns.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate Fibonacci level at 7199.75.
It’s a busy week ahead on the data front, though focus through the week will continue to be geo-political, with trade wars and the EU Summit to consider.