ConocoPhillips COP is set to report first-quarter 2023 results on May 4 before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, the upstream energy company’s adjusted earnings per share of $2.71 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny due to the lower natural gas liquid price and increased expenses. The negatives were partially offset by higher oil-equivalent production volumes.
In the trailing four quarters, ConocoPhillips beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings thrice and missed the same once, delivering an earnings surprise of 2.4%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise
ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up before the announcement.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips’ first-quarter earnings per share of $2.02 has witnessed no upward revision and seven downward movements in the past 30 days. This suggests a 38.2% decline from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s revenues for the March-end quarter is pegged at $15.3 billion. This implies a year-over-year decline of 20.6%.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for ConocoPhillips this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you can see.
Earnings ESP: ConocoPhillips has an Earnings ESP of +0.13%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: COP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors to Note
Although oil prices tumbled in the second half of 2022, the same continued to be elevated in the first quarter of 2023. Higher oil prices favored exploration and production activities and convinced more explorers and producers to return to oil patches, depicting that the upstream business was lucrative in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips’ daily total production is pegged at 1,755 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), suggesting an improvement from the 1,747 MBoe/d reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric is 1,754.7 MBoe/d, implying a year-over-year increase. Higher production is likely to have aided COP’s performance in the first quarter.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:
Magellan Midstream Partners LP MMP has an Earnings ESP of +0.70% and is currently a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Magellan Midstream is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings is pegged at $1.21 per share, suggesting an increase from the prior-year reported figure.
PBF Energy Inc. PBF has an Earnings ESP of +3.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
PBF Energy is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s earnings is pegged at $2.46 per share, indicating a significant increase from the prior-year reported figure.
EOG Resources Inc. EOG has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
EOG Resources is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG’s earnings is pegged at $2.42 per share, calling for a decline from the prior-year reported figure.
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