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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Jun 6. In the last reported quarter, CBRL reported an earnings surprise of 11.3%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.33, indicating growth of 1.3% from $1.29 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $845.1 million. The projection suggests an increase of 7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Quote

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Let’s check out the factors likely to have influenced CBRL’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Cracker Barrel's fiscal third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its off-premise business model, bundled holiday offerings and optimized marketing strategy. Also, improvement in guest visitation backed by strong value proposition is likely to have aided CBRL.

During the previous quarter, management stated that comparable store off-premise sales contributed 23% of quarterly restaurant sales. Catering business and third-party delivery performed well.

Also, it reported strong demand in its Easter bundled offerings. Backed by order-fulfillment improvements and expanded guest engagement (through its digital platform), the momentum is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Robust restaurant and retail sales, thanks to strong demand (for seasonal assortments) and cross-generational appeal, are likely to have aided the company’s fiscal third-quarter top line. We expect restaurant and retail sales to be $662.3 million and $219.1 million, up 6.8% and 4.5% year over year, respectively.

However, inflationary pressures (in the areas of utilities and maintenance) and supply-chain challenges are likely to have negatively impacted Cracker Barrel’s performance in the quarter under review. Although CBRL has been strategically increasing prices to mitigate the impact of inflation, it expects commodity inflation to be in mid-single digit.  

For third-quarter fiscal 2023, our model predicts cost of goods sold to rise 7.8% year over year to $269.5 million. Also, we expect adjusted store operating expenses to increase 7.1% year over year to $767.3 million.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of +3.76%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cracker Barrel has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat,

Bath & Body Works BBWI currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.39% and a Zacks Rank #3. BBWI is likely to register a decrease in the bottom line while reporting second-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 32 cents suggests a decline of 38.5% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Bath & Body Works’ top line is expected to decrease year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.57 billion, which indicates a decline of 3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. BBWI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 44.6%, on average.

Macy’s M currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.81% and a Zacks Rank of #3. M is likely to register a decline in the bottom line while reporting first-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 46 cents suggests a decrease of 57.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Macy’s top line is expected to decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.11 billion, which suggests a loss of 4.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. M delivered an earnings beat of 60.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. QSR is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line while reporting second-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 75 cents suggests a decline of 8.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Restaurant Brands’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.73 billion, indicating an increase of 5.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. QSR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.9%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Macy's, Inc. (M) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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