It's normal to be annoyed when stock you own has a declining share price. But often it is not a reflection of the fundamental business performance. So while the Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited (ASX:DBI) share price is down 10% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -2.0%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 6.9%. Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
The result looks like a strong improvement to us, so we're surprised the market has sold down the shares. If the company can sustain the earnings growth, this might be an inflection point for the business, which would make right now a really interesting time to study it more closely.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure the TSR over the last 1 year was -2.0%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Given that the broader market dropped 6.9% over the year, the fact that Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure shareholders were down 2.0% isn't so bad. At least the recent returns have been positive, with the stock up 7.1% in around 90 days. The recent uptick could be an early suggestion that the prior falls were too extreme; but we'll need to see how the business progresses. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure .
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here