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The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NYSE:NAPA) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to US$8.63 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$103m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 20% to hit US$0.14 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Duckhorn Portfolio

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Taking into account the latest results, Duckhorn Portfolio's seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$404.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$0.57, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$421.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.65 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

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It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 9.3% to US$11.44. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Duckhorn Portfolio at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Duckhorn Portfolio's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.5% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Duckhorn Portfolio.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Duckhorn Portfolio. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Duckhorn Portfolio's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Duckhorn Portfolio going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Duckhorn Portfolio you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.