September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading flat-to-slightly higher early Wednesday following yesterday’s solid performance that was fueled by the hope of a dovish Federal Reserve policy statement and the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China. So far there has been no follow-through to the upside.
At 06:38 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 26514, up 10 or +0.04%.
Traders are saying there is a 20% chance of a rate cut. However, the focus will be on the Fed’s monetary policy statement and whether central bank policymakers open the door to further rate cuts later this year. Going into the announcements, traders are pricing in at least three cuts by the Fed in 2019.
The Dow could rally if the Fed comes across as excessively dovish. This means it signals rate cuts in July, September and December. Skipping the July rate cut could be read as hawkish and this could drive the Dow lower.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 26550 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The next two upside targets are the April 23 main top at 26710 and the October 3, 2018 main top at 27031.
A trade through 25897 will change the main trend to down.
The main range is 26710 to 24626. Its retracement zone at 25914 to 25668 is controlling the near-term direction of the Dow. Holding above this support zone will help maintain the upside bias.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term uptrending Gann angle at 26409.
A sustained move over 26409 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take out 26550 and challenge 26710. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 27031.
A sustained move under 26409 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the support cluster at 26162 to 26153. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the next support angle at 26025, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 25914 and the main bottom at 25897.
Taking out 25897 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger an acceleration into the main 50% level at 25668.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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