Friday, 17th July
Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) Final
Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jun) Final
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun) Final
It was back into the red for the European majors on Thursday, which partially reversed a Wednesday recovery.
The EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.47%, with the CAC40 and the DAX30 seeing losses of 0.46% and 0.43% respectively.
Economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S and the ECB failed to deliver a 2nd consecutive daily gain for the majors. Earlier in the day, a mixed set of stats from China had weighed on risk sentiment ahead of the European session.
Apprehension ahead of today’s meeting of EU leaders to agree on the mechanism of the EU Recovery Fund left the majors on the back foot. There’s been disagreement within the ECB and amongst leaders of EU member states. It may take some time for EU leaders to agree on how to slice and dice the pie…
It was a quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included finalized inflation figures out of France and the Eurozone’s trade figures for May.
While the stats were positive, there was no impact on the majors.
From France, consumer prices rose by 0.1% in June, with harmonized consumer prices also rising by 0.1%. Both were revised up from -0.1% prelim figures.
For the Eurozone, the trade surplus widened from €2.9bn to €9.4bn in May.
According to Eurostat,
- Exports of goods to the rest of the world tumbled by 29.5% to €143.3bn when compared with May 2019.
- Imports from the rest of the world slumped by 26.7% to €133.9bn.
- In May 2019, the trade surplus had stood at €20.7bn.
- Intra-euro area trade tumbled by 27.9% to €125.3bn.
The ECB was also in action on Thursday. There were no surprises, however, with the ECB standing pat on monetary policy.
From the U.S
It was a busier day on the U.S calendar. The Philly FED Manufacturing Index fell from 27.5 to 24.1, with initial jobless claims rising by 1.3m in the week ending 10th July.
A recovery in retails sales continued in June, however. Month-on-month, retail sales rose by 7.5%, with core retail sales rising by 7.3%.
The Market Movers
For the DAX: It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday. BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen saw gains of 1.29%, 1.47%, and 0.62% respectively. Continental fell by 0.21% to buck the trend on the day.
It was also a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank fell by 1.48%, while Commerzbank rose by 0.21%.
From the CAC, it was another bullish day for the banks. Credit Agricole and Soc Gen rose by 0.94% and by 1.46% respectively to lead the way. BNP Paribas eked out a 0.08% gain.
The French auto sector also had a mixed day. Peugeot slipped by 0.51%, while Renault rose by 2.00%.
Air France-KLM and Airbus SE gave up some of Wednesday’s gains. The pair ended the day down by 2.18% and by 3.21% respectively.
On the VIX Index
A run of 2 consecutive days in the red came to an end on Thursday. Partially reversing a 5.96% fall from Wednesday, the VIX rose by 0.86% to end the day at 28.00.
Concerns over the economic outlook and disappointing economic data from China weighed on the U.S majors.
On Thursday, reports of a stalling of the U.S economic recovery stemming from the spike in new COVID-19 cases also weighed.
The S&P500 slipped by 0.34%, with the Dow and NASDAQ seeing losses of 0.50% and 0.73% respectively.
The Day Ahead
It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats are limited to finalized June inflation figures for the Eurozone.
The numbers are unlikely to have too much impact. We expect the market focus to be on the meeting of EU leaders to discuss the details of the EU Recovery Fund.
From the U.S
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. June housing starts and prelim July consumer sentiment figures are due out.
We can expect consumer sentiment figures to have greater influence. With the continued spread of COVID-19, any impact on consumer confidence will be negative for riskier assets.
While the gathering of EU leaders is the main event, COVID-19 news and any chatter from the U.S administration will also need monitoring.
The Latest Coronavirus Figures
On Thursday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 227,202 to 13,924,221, according to figures at the time of writing. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 242,529. The daily increase was lower than Wednesday’s rise while up from 223,514 new cases from the previous Thursday.
Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 2,175 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 1,523 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, 1,190 new cases had been reported. Notably, Spain reported 1,361 new cases on Thursday.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 66,562 to 3,683,309 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had increased by 71,670. On Thursday, 9th July, a total of 61,067 new cases had been reported.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow up by 64 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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