Yahoo Finance Intrinsic Calculation For The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Shows Investors Are Overpaying
Today I will be providing a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) as an investment opportunity by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not October 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Walt Disney by following the link below.
Check out our latest analysis for Walt Disney
The model
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $10.69k | $12.02k | $13.35k | $9.97k | $10.98k |
Source | Analyst x10 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 |
Present Value Discounted @ 10.39% | $9.68k | $9.86k | $9.92k | $6.71k | $6.70k |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$42.9b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.4%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$11.0b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10.4% – 2.9%) = US$151.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$151.9b ÷ ( 1 + 10.4%)5 = US$92.7b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$135.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $91.15. Relative to the current share price of $112.61, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Walt Disney as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.056. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For DIS, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does DIS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does DIS’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of DIS? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
