Investing in Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX:FLT) three years ago would have delivered you a 107% gain
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. Just take a look at Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX:FLT), which is up 86%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 41% (not including dividends).
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group
Because Flight Centre Travel Group made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last 3 years Flight Centre Travel Group saw its revenue shrink by 34% per year. Despite the lack of revenue growth, the stock has returned 23%, compound, over three years. If the company is cutting costs profitability could be on the horizon, but the revenue decline is a prima facie concern.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Flight Centre Travel Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Flight Centre Travel Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Flight Centre Travel Group shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 107%, over the last 3 years, is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Flight Centre Travel Group shareholders are down 5.4% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.8%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 10% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Flight Centre Travel Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Flight Centre Travel Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here