Bougainville Copper Limited (ASX:BOC) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last quarter. But that doesn't undermine the rather lovely longer-term return, if you measure over the last three years. The share price marched upwards over that time, and is now 215% higher than it was. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
We don't think Bougainville Copper's revenue of K3,917,000 is enough to establish significant demand. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Bougainville Copper will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Bougainville Copper has already given some investors a taste of the sweet gains that high risk investing can generate, if your timing is right.
Our data indicates that Bougainville Copper had K3.9m more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in June 2022. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. So we're surprised to see the stock up 70% per year, over 3 years , but we're happy for holders. It's clear more than a few people believe in the potential. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Bougainville Copper's cash levels have changed over time.
Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. One thing you can do is check if company insiders are buying shares. If they are buying a significant amount of shares, that's certainly a good thing. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Bougainville Copper shareholders are down 19% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.8%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bougainville Copper better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Bougainville Copper , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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