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NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Light-Volume, Rangebound Between .6404 to .6426

James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is getting a boost on Tuesday following a report showing much-better-than-expected September quarter retail sales data. Figures released earlier today showed seasonally adjusted retail sales volumes rose 1.6 percent in the three months ended September 30, more than the 0.5 percent increase economists had generally expected.

At 06:48 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6422, up 0.0005 or +0.07%.

The number was also up from the 0.2 percent pace of growth in the June quarter. Values were up 1.4 percent as some retailers still struggled to pass on rising costs to consumers.

Volume remains low with many of the major banks already moving to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. bank holiday on Thursday.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6437 will change the main trend to up. This will make .6395 a new main bottom.

The short-term range is .6466 to .6322. Its retracement zone at .6411 to .6394 is support. Trading on the strong side of this retracement zone is also helping to give the Forex pair a slight upside bias.

The main range is .6204 to .6466. Its retracement zone at .6335 to .6304 is major support. It stopped the selling on November 8 at .6322.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the support is an uptrending Gann angle at .6404, and the resistance is a downtrending Gann angle at .6426. In between these angles is a short-term Fibonacci level at .6411.

Given the low pre-holiday volume, the NZD/USD could trade between .6404 to .6426 most of the session on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6426 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the main top at .6437. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up. This could lead to a test of the downtrending Gann angle at .6446.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome .6426 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the short-term Fibonacci level at .6411 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.

A sustained move under .6404 could trigger a break into the short-term 50% level at .6394, followed by the uptrending Gann angle at .6386.

Side Notes

Basically, the NZD/USD could strengthen over .6426 and weaken under .6404. However, be careful playing for breakouts over this levels because of the below average volume.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire