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Is There An Opportunity With Calian Group Ltd.'s (TSE:CGY) 38% Undervaluation?

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Calian Group Ltd. (TSE:CGY) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Calian Group

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

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A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)

CA$48.8m

CA$55.0m

CA$59.6m

CA$63.3m

CA$66.5m

CA$69.1m

CA$71.4m

CA$73.4m

CA$75.3m

CA$77.0m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x5

Analyst x4

Est @ 8.25%

Est @ 6.30%

Est @ 4.94%

Est @ 3.99%

Est @ 3.32%

Est @ 2.85%

Est @ 2.52%

Est @ 2.29%

Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%

CA$45.5

CA$47.9

CA$48.4

CA$48.0

CA$47.1

CA$45.7

CA$44.0

CA$42.3

CA$40.4

CA$38.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$448m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$77m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (7.1%– 1.8%) = CA$1.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CA$1.5b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10= CA$729m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$1.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$62.3, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Calian Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.907. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Calian Group

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Commercial Services market.

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market.

  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.

  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Calian Group, we've put together three additional elements you should further research:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Calian Group that you should be aware of.

  2. Future Earnings: How does CGY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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