The Progressive Corporation’s PGR first-quarter 2023 earnings per share of 65 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 as well as our estimate of $1.50. The bottom line declined 20.7% year over year.
Shares lost 4.4% in the pre-market trading session, reflecting the earnings underperformance.
The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Progressive Corporation Quote
Behind the Headlines
Net premiums written were $16.1 billion in the quarter, rising 22% from $13.2 billion a year ago and beating our estimate of $14.6 billion.
Net premiums earned grew 15% to $13.5 billion and beat our estimate of $12.6 billion.
Net realized gains on securities were $71.8 billion compared with a gain of $445.3 million in the year-ago quarter.
Operating revenues were about $14.2 billion, up 15.8% year over year. This improvement was driven by a 15% increase in premiums, 18.5% higher fees and other revenues, a 7.1% increase in service revenues and 73.2% higher investment income. The top line exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.1 billion and our estimate of $13.1 billion.
Total expenses increased 20% year over year to $13.7 billion due to 20% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, 16% higher policy acquisition costs and a 23% rise in other underwriting expenses. Our estimate was $12 billion.
The combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 450 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 99.
March Policies in Force
Policies in force were solid in the Personal Auto segment, increasing 11% from the year-ago month’s figure to 19.2 million. Special Lines improved 5% to 5.6 million.
In Progressive’s Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 15% year over year to 11 million, while Agency Auto increased 5% to 8.2 million.
Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 7% year over year to 1.1 million. The Property business had 2.9 million policies in force, up 4%.
Progressive’s book value per share was $26.32 as of Mar 31, 2023, down 1.2% from $28.31 on Mar 31, 2022.
Return on equity in March 2023 was 0.1%, down 200 basis points (bps) year over year. The total debt-to-total capital ratio deteriorated 30 bps to 27.5.
Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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