Yahoo Finance Will Sanofi (SNY) Surpass Estimates This Earnings Season?
We expect Sanofi SNY to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 27, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company missed earnings expectations by 3.33%.
This large drugmaker’s performance beat earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.68%, on average.
Sanofi Price and EPS Surprise
Sanofi price-eps-surprise | Sanofi Quote
Sanofi’s stock has declined 0.3% in the past year against an increase of 7.9% for the industry.
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Factors to Consider
Sanofi’s top-line growth is likely to have been driven by higher sales of the Specialty Care business, mainly driven by its blockbuster drug Dupixent.
Dupixent sales in the quarter are likely to have been driven by robust growth in all markets and new indications. In the United States, sales are expected to have been driven by strong demand for its approved indications, atopic dermatitis, asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis indications and strong launches for new indications, eosinophilic esophagitis and prurigo nodularis.
Dupixent was approved for its fifth disease indication in Europe, eosinophilic esophagitis, in January, which is likely to have contributed to first-quarter sales.
Please note that Sanofi markets Dupixent in partnership with Regeneron (REGN). In addition to the currently approved indications, Sanofi and Regeneron are studying Dupixent in a broad range of diseases, driven by type 2 inflammation or other allergic processes in late-stage studies. Our estimates for Dupixent stand at €2.37 billion.
Sales of Sanofi’s rare disease and rare blood disorders drugs are likely to have increased in the first quarter.
The FDA approved Sanofi’s novel recombinant factor VIII therapy, Altuviiio (efanesoctocog alfa), for the treatment of people with hemophilia A, in February. Investors will be keen to know the initial sales numbers of the new drug.
Our estimates for rare disease, rare blood disorders and oncology drugs are €883.7 million, €316.8 million and €235.5 million, respectively.
However, sales are expected to have declined slightly in the immunology and neurology franchise in the first quarter. In the General Medicines unit, the growth of core drugs (like Multaq, Toujeo, Praluent and Rezurock) is likely to have been offset by lower sales of non-core drugs (like Lantus and Aprovel).
In Vaccines, sales declined in the fourth quarter, reflecting accelerated supply phasing of influenza vaccines. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the first quarter. Our estimate for Vaccines is €1.08 billion.
CHC is expected to have put up a strong sales performance in the Digestive Wellness, Allergy and Cough & Cold categories. Our model estimates CHC unit sales to be €1.36 billion
In March, Sanofi announced an agreement to buy Provention Bio PRVB for $25.00 per share in cash, representing an equity value of approximately $2.9 billion. The acquisition will add Provention Bio’s Tzield to Sanofi’s portfolio, which is the first therapy to delay the onset of Stage 3 type I diabetes (T1D) in patients aged 8 years and older who already have Stage 2 T1D. Tzield was approved by the FDA in 2022. Sanofi already has a co-promotion agreement with Provention Bio for Tzield. An update is expected on the first-quarter conference call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Sanofi in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Sanofi’s Earnings ESP is +4.70% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.12 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Sanofi has a Zacks Rank #2
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Eli Lilly LLY has an Earnings ESP of +5.94% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Lilly’s stock has risen 26.4% in the past year. Lilly beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. LLY has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 0.73%, on average. Lilly is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on Apr 27.
Novo Nordisk NVO has an Earnings ESP of +10.71% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 42.8% in the past year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.0%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on May 4.
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Sanofi (SNY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Provention Bio, Inc. (PRVB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
