Yahoo Finance Unum Group Just Recorded A 7.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$3.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Unum Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.04 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Unum Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Unum Group's nine analysts is for revenues of US$13.0b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 15% to US$7.88. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$13.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.86 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$58.60, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Unum Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$66.00 and the most bearish at US$51.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Unum Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Unum Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 5.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Unum Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Unum Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Unum Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Unum Group you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
