September jobs report, October stock market performance in focus this week

Yahoo Finance’s Alexandra Semenova joins the Live show to discuss the expectations for the September unemployment report as well as what to look for in upcoming earnings.

Video transcript

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BRIAN SOZZI: All right, thanks Julie. We're a few days away from the latest jobs report, which could be more market moving than the normal, given how hawkish the Federal Reserve has been. Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Semenova has a preview. Alexandra?

ALEXANDRA SEMENOVA: Well guys, it is another busy week of economic data. Lots of Fed speak and a few corporate earnings, but of course, the headline event of the week is the big jobs report on Friday. Economists are expecting a payroll gain of 250,000 jobs added in September. That would mark yet another moderation in the data, good sign for Fed officials who are trying to tamp down inflation.

But worth noting, that we keep getting labor market readings that surprise to the upside. The last few jobs reports came in way higher than expected. Initial jobless claims, which offer the most timely snapshot of the labor market, also just came in well below 200,000, the lowest rating since April. And Bank of America analysts said in a note on Friday that all of the indicators that they use in their projections, including weekly claims, have been red hot since the August report. So we are very likely to get another reading that comes in higher than estimates, which will be a bit rattling for investors, because it will serve as a sign to Fed officials that they can proceed with tightening monetary policy, which of course, risks over tightening.

BRAD SMITH: All right, big jobs week. What else is on the docket, though?

ALEXANDRA SEMENOVA: Well, it is the start of a new week, a new month, and a new quarter, but will it be a fresh start for investors? That is the question. Investors are coming off of a brutal September and everyone is wondering whether October could offer a nice little bounce like we saw in June, when stocks hit their last lows.

Seasonal trends have deemed this month a bear market killer because October historically is a pretty good month for stocks. But Julia, as you pointed out in your Morning Brief recently, the earnings season is expected to be really difficult and it'll test that October theory. The corporate calendar this week is light.

We do have a few notable reports out, Constellation Brands, Levi Strauss, and McCormick. And elsewhere in economic data, we'll also have the ADPs private payroll report, which serves as somewhat of an imperfect precursor to the main jobs report. We'll have a jolts, we'll have durable goods orders, and more services sector data out. We also have 13 Fed officials set to deliver public remarks this week.

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ALEXANDRA SEMENOVA: So a very busy start to the quarter.

BRIAN SOZZI: Not you, just the Fed members. I mean, they're just crushing the market. Holy cow.

BRAD SMITH: Yeah, every time they speak, it'll make you want to reach for one of those Constellation [INAUDIBLE].

BRIAN SOZZI: Yeah. right?

BRAD SMITH: Yahoo Finance's own Alexandra Semenova joining us this morning. Thanks so much, Alex.

ALEXANDRA SEMENOVA: Thanks guys.