|Day's range||69.37 - 71.10|
Yesterday, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.4%, 3.2% below its 15-day average. The inverse relationship between oil prices and oil’s implied volatility is illustrated in the graph below. Since reaching a 12-year low in February 2016, US crude oil active futures have risen 165%. Crude oil’s implied volatility has fallen ~67.5% since February 11, 2016.
Yesterday, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.6%, ~4.4% below its 15-day moving average. In the last week, natural gas’s August futures have fallen 1%, and its implied volatility has fallen ~2.5%. Since June, these two variables have been moving together .
Yesterday, US crude oil September futures rose 0.7% and settled at $68.24 per barrel. Meanwhile, oil-weighted stocks Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Apache (APA), Denbury Resources (DNR), and California Resources (CRC), which benefit from higher oil prices, rose 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively.
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% year-over-year.
Between July 11 and July 18, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 4.2% while natural gas August futures fell 3.8%. On average, natural gas–weighted stocks underperformed natural gas futures in this period. Let’s take a look at the natural gas–weighted stocks that have outperformed natural gas prices in the last five trading sessions: Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): rose 1.2% Range Resources (RRC): fell 2.7%
The S&P 500 Index fell ~0.4% to 2,804.49 on July 19. The index fell due to disappointing second-quarter earnings results from some of the S&P 500 companies and escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe. The European Union could impose tariffs on goods imported from the US. Six out of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500 fell on July 19.
The natural gas–weighted stocks on our list that are sensitive to US crude oil September futures’ movements based on their last five trading sessions’ correlations with US crude oil September futures are as follows: Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 82.9% Range Resources (RRC): 59.8% Antero Resources (AR): 47.3% Southwestern Energy (SWN): 25.4%
Approximately 36.4% of the Wall Street analysts rated Whiting Petroleum (WLL) as a “buy,” 45.5% rated it as a “hold,” and ~12% rated it as “underperform.”
Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) production guidance range for Q2 2018 is 76.0–80.5 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day). Oasis Petroleum expects this growth to be driven by the Williston (Bakken) and Delaware basins. OAS was a pure-play Bakken player until it announced its Permian basin acquisition last year.
On July 18, natural gas August futures fell 0.7% and settled at $2.72 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—the lowest closing level since May 4. Oversupply concerns in the face of weak demand could be behind the decline. Moreover, the forecast of cooler summer weather is another worry for natural gas bulls.
Between July 11 and July 18, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 2.4%, while US crude oil September futures fell 1.6%. Below are the oil-weighted stocks that have seen the largest increases in the last five trading sessions: RSP Permian (RSPP): rose 3.9% Concho Resources (CXO): rose 3.8% WPX Energy (WPX): rose 1.4%
On July 18, US crude oil September futures rose 0.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel. In the last three trading sessions, US crude oil September futures have been struggling to close above the $68.00 mark.
The current implied volatility in Whiting Petroleum (WLL) is ~57.24%—0.49% higher than its 15-day average of 56.96%. In contrast, the broader energy sector, represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), has an implied volatility of ~17.8%—5.86% lower than the 15-day average of ~18.91%.
The correlation between National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) stock price and crude oil prices on April 16–July 16 was 0.52. The correlation shows that there’s a strong positive relationship between National Oilwell Varco stock and crude oil prices.
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Marathon, Hess, Anadarko, ConocoPhillips and Whiting Petroleum
Crude oil markets rallied in the day on Thursday, reaching towards significant resistance as I record this market. I think that the market is probably due for a correction, so that makes sense to happen. I think that it is only a matter of time before the negativity comes back though.
West Texas’ Permian has enjoyed a lot of media attention recently, but as oil prices continue to rise, Utah is becoming increasingly attractive to investors looking for long-term riches
Asian and Middle Eastern Independent oil companies are expanding their presence in South-East Asia as Big Oil has been shrinking their portfolio in this region
Despite the production surge in June and July, Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday that it expects a reduction in crude exports in August
US crude oil exports fell 28% to 1,461,000 bpd (barrels per day) last week, but rose by 733,000 bpd (101%) YoY (year-over-year) due to the oil export ban being lifted, domestic oil production rising, and the Brent-WTI spread widening.
Iran has filed a complaint against the United States with the International Court of Justice, claiming U.S. sanctions are ‘unlawful’
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock has been increasing since the beginning of this year. The stock has risen ~82.93% since the beginning of 2018 and 144% on a year-over-year basis.
Yesterday, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its oil inventory report. It reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 MMbbls (million barrels) to 411 MMbbls between July 6 and 13, but fell by ~80 MMbbls (16.2%) YoY (year-over-year). A Reuters survey had earlier estimated that US crude oil inventories fell 3.6 MMbbls last week.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil output rose by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 11,000,000 bpd last week, a record high. It was 1,571,000 bpd (~16.6%) higher YoY (year-over-year).