|Day's range||7,688.09 - 7,740.74|
|52-week range||5,895.12 - 8,027.18|
Based on the early price action and the current price at 7661.50, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7638.25.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 7611.75, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at 7638.25.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 7505.25, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 7510.50.
Trump extends China an olive branch in a bid to support retailers over the Christmas period. China needs to ramp up agri imports to ease tensions further.
Our research that highlighted this August 19, 2019 date and the potential for what we are calling the Crazy Ivan price move is rooted in our super-cycle analysis, predictive modeling tools, and other specialized proprietary price modeling solutions and utilities. We believe we’ve identified a key inflection point/date that will start what we are calling a “breakdown move” which will lead to the Crazy Ivan event throughout the globe.
Based on the current price at 7696.50, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 7699.75.
Some economists are saying that the escalating trade war and its impact on the global economy are not the only reasons for slowing labor conditions. They blame the slowdown in hiring on the fading stimulus from last year’s $1.5 trillion tax package.
“U.S. monetary policy cannot reasonably react to the day-to-day give-and-take of trade negotiations,” Bullard said Tuesday in a presentation to the National Economists Club in Washington. He further added that policymakers may need to get accustomed to greater trade uncertainty.
Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend.
Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 7510.25 to 7382.50. Buyers may come in on a test of this zone because it represents value. Also, the index is down eight sessions from its last main top, which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.
It was quite a week for the majors. A hawkish FED rate cut and Trump tweeting tested the majors on the week… A busy economic calendar was also in focus.
Once conditions settle down and the major indexes reach value areas on the charts, I think we’re going to see renewed buying and probably new record highs by the end of the year. The way I see it, if the economy continues to weaken then stocks may feel some pressure, but short-sellers aren’t going to get too aggressive on the short side because they know the Fed will have their back.
Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark rate 25-basis points on July 31. This news has been priced into the market for several weeks. Wednesday’s Australian CPI and Friday’s Retail Sales reports could determine whether the RBA makes a third consecutive rate cut at its next meeting. Right now, investors don’t expect central bank policymakers to make any changes. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut rates on August 6. The key report to watch this week is Wednesday’s ANZ Business Confidence report.
While the Trump administration continues to blame seven rate hikes for the slowdown in the economy, and executives have grown worried about the back-and-forth tariff battle between the U.S. and China, weakening business sentiment, the government’s data has shown that consumer and government spending have helped propel GDP in the second quarter.
Powell and Williams are on the same page. They both see the need for a rate cut at the end of July, and they both feel the Fed has to act quickly to support and attempt to steer the economy in the right direction. Their comments last week also indicate that they are both willing to override the models.
The major U.S. stock indexes are expected to open higher based on the pre-market futures trade, however, the markets are retreating from early highs. Buyers came in early, following through to the upside after Thursday’s late rally, but gains were dampened after a New York Fed spokesperson downplayed the chances of an aggressive rate cut.
Williams finished by saying that when faced with low rates and slowing growth, the best strategy is to “take swift action” and “keep interest rates lower for longer.”
“Take swift action” and “keep interest rates lower for longer” may mean to some that a 25-basis point rate cut is a done deal, but to others it means “be aggressive”. Therefore, I have to conclude that the chances of a half-a-point rate cut may increase over the near-term, which could be supportive for gold prices.