|Day's range||9,145.23 - 9,221.13|
|52-week range||6,613.42 - 9,242.48|
Based on the early price action and the current price at 9189.75, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of 50% levels at 9184.50 and 9138.50.
Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”. We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility.
Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 9174.50.
There was nothing in the Beige Book to suggest a change in Fed policy. Even with the signing of the trade deal between the United States and China on Wednesday, Fed policymakers are likely to maintain their wait and see approach.
Once again, the index straddled a steep uptrending Gann angle at 9085.25. This angle, moving up at a rate of 32 points per day from the 8189.25 bottom, has been guiding the market higher since December 3.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 9017.00, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s low at 8966.25 and the uptrending Gann angle at 9053.25.
A close under 9009.00 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Not only is the index closing lower, but it’s also in a position to close below the opening and the mid-point of the session.
It is often the case that markets start a new year with new trends. Fears of a full-fledged military confrontation between the US and Iran made the markets worry last week, but soon the situation returned to the previous course.
The only level traders should be concerned about into the close is 8957.25. This is an uptrending Gann angle moving at a rate of 32 points per day from the 8189.25 main bottom.
Traders are anticipating volatility when President Trump addresses the nation at about 14:00 GMT. Trump’s message could set the tone in the financial markets the rest of the session.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 8799.25.
One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system. It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.
Traders are hoping the first phase of an agreement between the U.S. and China will lead to a further easing of tensions between the two economic powerhouses and that with the signing of the deal on January 15, signs of a rebound will start to emerge.
CNBC analysts, citing historical analysis, concluded oil prices tend to see gains following Middle East crisis events, while stocks eventually churn higher as safe haven assets gold and Treasurys fade from their initial pops.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 8777.00, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor retracement zone at 8799.25 to 8773.75.
If investors start to price in the possibility of retaliation from Iran then the upside momentum will slow. Investors could also trim exposure in the markets but by what percentage. Remember, there were NO 10% corrections in the market last year.
Look for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 8767.50, and for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 8785.50.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 8723.00, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending Gann angle at 8715.50.
Breaking the uptrending Gann angle was significant because it had been guiding the index higher since December 3. The close under this angle could lead to further selling pressure on Tuesday. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at 8581.50.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 8826.50, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 8804.25.
US markets surged to record highs as the latest Mastercard Spending Survey reminded investors never underestimate the purchasing power of the US consumer.
Another trend indicator to watch is the steep uptrending Gann angle moving up 32 points per day since the December 3 main bottom at 8189.25. This angle is currently at 8669.25. It has been guiding the market higher for 15 sessions.
The key level to watch into the close on Monday is 8710.75. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls or the bears are in control.
Taking out 8724.75 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this won’t change the trend, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.
If the selling is strong enough to take out 8573.25 then look for the start of a steep sell-off. The daily chart indicates the first important downside target is the short-term 50% level at 8480.25.