|Day's range||7,647.40 - 7,694.18|
|52-week range||5,895.12 - 7,715.07|
Volume is expected to be light because of the upcoming long Easter holiday weekend. Therefore, be careful buying strength and selling weakness. Also there is the increased possibility of a choppy, two-sided trade. Additionally, taking out 7652.25 will turn the index lower for this holiday-shortened week.
The monthly report, which attempts to catch a glimpse of the economy based on conversations with business contacts across all of the Fed’s 12 districts, revealed that economic activity grew at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April. A few areas even showed some strengthening in economic growth.
Despite earlier warnings of the worst earnings season since 2016, the corporate earnings season is off to a strong start. Nearly 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten analyst earnings expectations, FactSet data shows.
Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-profit that beat the estimates, but company revenue failed to meet expectations. Citigroup reported mixed first-quarter results, saying its earnings were boosted by share buybacks while revenue fell amid a sharp decline in equities trading. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told CNBC on Monday that he’d be comfortable leaving interest rates unchanged until fall 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the U.S.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 7652.25.
With the US and China on track to a trade deal and commodity prices well-supported, add China credit infusion to the mix, it suggests this is a market to trade and not fade.
The week was saved by a slew of positive corporate news that included strong earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase, which delivered better-than-expected results, Disney’s unveiling of a new streaming service, and the announcement that Dow member Chevron plans to acquire Anadarko Petroleum for $33 billion in cash and stock.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7660.00.
This week’s U.S. consumer and producer inflation data confirmed that inflation was soft. This confirmed comments in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 19-20 policy meeting published on Wednesday. In the minutes, policymakers described inflation as “muted,” though officials expected it to rise to or near the U.S. central bank’s 2-percent target.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7628.00. Basically, the index will remain bullish as long as it remains inside the uptrending channel with 7628.00 the lower level and 7733.75 the upper level of the channel.
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd. alerted us to a Fibonacci technical pattern that is setting up in the US stock market right now. This pattern suggests that volatility will increase dramatically over the next few days/weeks as intra-day price action suggests deeper sideways price action may continue.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7596.00.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, demand for workers deteriorated sharply in February, possibly adding to evidence of a slowdown in hiring, the results of a closely-followed labor market survey showed. Tuesday’s report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed small-business owners are optimistic the economy will keep moving forward albeit at a slower-to-moderate pace.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at 7623.50.
Too many factors to deal with at one time can cause investing paralysis, or confusion, or uncertainty. Call it whatever you want. When investors feel uncertain, they tend to sell, which is what I’m looking for over the near-term.
Last week we had strong numbers out of China and our research continues to suggest the Chinese stock market could be poised for an upside price rally of at least 15% over the next 30+ days before possibly reaching a peak in June or July 2019. Our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting a target level of $30.50 to $31.50 (in YINN) as an immediate upside profit range.
According to Refinitiv, investors should expect a 2.2% decline in first-quarter profits for the S&P 500 companies, “but those lower results are expected to be the trough.” With Friday’s respectable payroll number, the dampening of recession concerns and an imminent U.S.-China trade deal, fewer bad corporate earnings reports or positive economic reports could all be catalysts to drive stocks back to their all-time highs over the near-term.
Based on Friday’s close at 7604.25, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 7616.25.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 7509.75.